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Josiah Gray made his long awaited return to action after missing most of the last two seasons due to Tommy John Surgery. He was solid, but not spectacular in his return. Gray went 1.2 innings, but he would have completed two if not for a dropped third strike. His stuff was crisp, especially in the first inning.
Like a lot of Nationals pitchers, Gray is really backing off his fastball usage. This is not very surprising for him because we saw him moving away from his heater back in 2023 when we saw him last. Gray’s fastball has always been his achilles heel, as it has gotten crushed when hitters make contact. He only threw 9 fastballs in 38 pitches yesterday.
I do not think that will be an outlier in terms of usage for Gray. He has a few different breaking ball shapes he can throw. Yesterday, Gray’s two most used pitches were his slider and curveball. He also mixed in a sweeper a few times. There are other breaking ball shapes we know he can throw too. Back in 2023, he threw a cutter 18% of the time, so maybe that could be a pitch he brings into the fold as well.
The velocity was a bit of a mixed bag, which is not overly surprising. In the first inning, Gray was sitting 94 on his fastball, which really excited me. That is harder than he was throwing in 2023. However, the velocity was down in the 91-92 range in his second inning of work.
He does not really rely on his fastball, so that is not the end of the world. However, secondary pitches are also helped by power and having to respect the fastball. Those secondary pitches were pretty sharp for Gray yesterday. I really loved how he used his curveball as a weapon against lefties. Against left handers, he threw the pitch 61% of the time. Righties saw a heavy dose of sliders.
The grades of those secondary pitches were strong, at least according to the Pitch Profiler model. All of Gray’s breaking balls graded out as above average according to their model. The fastball was a bit below average, which is not much of a surprise.
However, there was another model by TJ Stats that was more bearish on Gray’s stuff. All four of Gray’s pitches graded out as below average. Thomas Nestico, the founder of TJ Stats pointed out that Gray’s low release height may help the stuff play up. It is interesting to see how different models can see pitchers’ stuff slightly differently.
That is an example of why you can’t just blindly trust these models. They are great resources, but you have to look at the full picture. If a pitcher with great Stuff+ numbers gets lit up, you have to ask why that could be. Also, pitchers like Ranger Suarez can overperform models due to command and deception.
While that is an interesting side bar, the main thing about yesterday is that Josiah Gray was healthy and throwing the ball well. He has missed a lot of time, so hopefully as he gets more innings under his belt, he can sustain that velocity he showed in the first inning.
Overall, he made a strong first impression in his battle to win a rotation spot. If he continues to pitch like this, he should grab a spot in the Nats rotation. He has more interesting traits than the likes of Mitchell Parker and Andrew Alvarez. I also think Brad Lord’s best role is in the bullpen, so Gray winning a spot could help with that.
It is great to see Josiah Gray healthy. Back in 2023, I was a bit of a skeptic. I did not think his results were sustainable. However, after last season, I would kill for a reliable mid to back of the rotation starter who can give you league average production. That is what I think Josiah Gray could provide for the Nats.