Who Will Finish 18th In The Premier League This Season?

Tottenham Hotspur sit 18th with 30 points; Opta’s model assigns them a 46 % chance of relegation at the end of the 2025‑26 season. The club, unbeaten in the top flight since 1977, fell into trouble after a summer midfield sale, a tactical gamble that failed, and a January collapse that pushed them toward the drop.

The sale that broke the midfield

In August Tottenham sold their deep‑lying midfielder for £55 million. The transfer removed the player who balanced ball progression with defensive cover, leaving Postecoglou’s high line exposed. By mid‑November the team had conceded 24 goals, the worst tally in the league. The board requested a specialist defensive midfielder, but the manager replied that extra training, not a new signing, was the answer, and the window closed empty‑handed.

Boxing Day wake‑up call

The divide between fans and the coaching staff became clear on 26 December when newly promoted Sunderland pressed the centre‑backs and won 1‑0. Spurs remained 16th, four points clear of relegation, but the hostile reaction at the final whistle signalled deeper doubts. In the dressing room players raised concerns about the viability of the system without suitable personnel, while Postecoglou publicly defended his unchanged approach.

January spiral

January fixtures that often rescue relegation‑battlers turned into a trap. Wolves beat Spurs 2‑1 on 4 January, exploiting counters that started deep in their own half. Burnley followed with a 1‑0 win at Turf Moor. On 31 January Nottingham Forest edged Tottenham 3‑2, dropping Spurs into the bottom three for the first time since August 2008. The board then secured an emergency loan for a Ligue 1 defensive midfielder, but a thigh strain delayed his debut until mid‑March, by which point survival hinged on goal difference.

February’s gauntlet

February presented matches against Manchester City, Arsenal and Liverpool. Spurs salvaged a point against Arsenal with a stoppage‑time equaliser, but the result left them unchanged in the standings. The decisive blow arrived on 22 February at Brentford: after leading 2‑0 at halftime, Tottenham conceded three goals, the winner arriving in the 94th minute from a questionable corner. The loss returned them to 18th place, where they remained for the rest of the month.

Everton nadir and cup exit

March offered no relief. On 15 March Everton, winless in eight games, scored with their sole shot on target and secured a 1‑0 victory. Postecoglou labelled the display “unacceptable” and conducted an 80‑minute internal review. Four days later Aston Villa eliminated Spurs from the FA Cup quarter‑final, removing any potential silverware safety net. Entering April, Burnley and Wolves were already mathematically relegated with 20 and 17 points. West Ham sat 17th on 32 points, Nottingham Forest and Leeds on 33, while Tottenham remained the lowest of the threatened clubs with 30 points, six behind the Hammers on goal difference.

Financial impact of relegation

If relegation occurs, the impact extends beyond loss of prestige. Player contracts stay valid, but the club would forfeit about £100 million in Premier League TV revenue. Most agreements contain clauses that cut wages by up to 40 % and trigger predetermined transfer fees, prompting an inevitable departure of top talent seeking Champions League football. Tottenham would need to rebuild around younger players and loan signings—a formula that succeeded for Fulham and Burnley but failed for Norwich and Watford. The Championship’s 46‑game schedule demands physical resilience as much as skill, making promotion far from certain without a strong squad.

Remaining fixtures and points gap

Six games remain. Tottenham must play three of the current bottom eight, host Chelsea, and travel to Newcastle on the final day. West Ham, one point ahead, face Brighton, Manchester United and Brentford. Nottingham Forest and Leeds, three points clear, enjoy comparatively easier fixtures. Opta’s model still assigns Spurs a 46 % relegation risk, West Ham 38 %, Leeds 12 % and Forest 4 %. The pivotal clash is set for 3 May at the London Stadium, a direct six‑point battle that could determine who stays in the Premier League.

The wider lesson

The season illustrates the danger of persisting with a tactical philosophy that no longer matches the squad. Postecoglou’s high line succeeded at Celtic and in his first Tottenham season because the midfield could absorb pressure. Selling that midfield anchor without a replacement left the system exposed. The board’s decision not to intervene in January turned a tactical error into a relegation battle. Survival would still require a summer decision: rebuild the midfield to suit the system or alter the tactical shape. Relegation would force the latter, with financial and sporting repercussions lasting for years.